Armadillo ECDSA-113

[cjack]

Originally Posted by DARKER

Something wrong? 109.3% ETA: --

Hi Darker! We're past the median expected time (111% now), but that's completely normal with Pollard's Rho — it's a probabilistic algorithm. The median means there's a ~50% chance of finding the collision before that point, and ~50% after. At 111%, the cumulative probability of having found it is only about 62%, so there's still a ~38% chance of being exactly where we are.

Think of it like flipping a coin — just because you "should" get heads by flip #10 doesn't mean it can't take 15 or 20 flips. The ETA shows "--" because we're past the median estimate, but the math is solid and all 30 agents are grinding at 92 G/s. The collision can hit any moment now.

TL;DR: Perfectly normal statistical variance. We keep running.